Boston Patent Lawyer Erik Heels: The Last Word On #FireFarrell – Told You So!

Plus all my #FireFarrell Tweets #ForTheRecord.

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Baseball is a meritocracy. John Farrell is undeniably the weak link in the Red Sox chain. This is my 75th blog about the Red Sox (see the other 74 below), it will be my final one about #FireFarrell. After today (when the ALDS starts for the Red Sox), I watch and hope.

So pick a metric, any metric:

  • Win-loss record (WL).
  • Expected win-loss record (XWL).
  • Team winning percentage.
  • On-mound vs. between-inning pitching changes.
  • Clean innings started by relief pitchers.
  • Number of all-star pitchers injured as pinch-runners.

John Farrell is below average, at best, in all categories.

The Farrell apologists, who have been criticizing the #FireFarrell movement, have entirely missed the point. Namely that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

The 2016 Red Sox finished the regular season with a 93-69 record, which is the 12th best in my lifetime. Certainly the worst record of any team to make the playoffs in my lifetime. The XWL, on the other hand, was 100-62, which is minus seven (-7) for Farrell.

Notably, the Red Sox won only five games this season where they scored five runs or fewer. Five!

When you routinely leave your starting pitcher in too long, wait until the bases are loaded to bring in relief pitcher, and refuse to pinch-hit, pinch-run, sacrifice, or hit-and-run when logic calls for it, then your managing (or lack thereof) costs the Red Sox wins.

Just comparing WL to XWL, Farrell cost the Red Sox seven wins this season, which is 4% of the regular season games. There are possibly 19 postseason games (5 ALDS, 7 ALCS, 7 World Series), and 4% of 19 is one game. So just projecting Farrell’s regular season record onto the postseason, Farrell will cost the Red Sox one win in the postseason. One game will be the difference between heading to the golf course or heading to the Duck Boats. Plus the teams (and managers) you play in the postseason are, on average, better than the teams you play during the regular season. So my prediction that Farrell will cost the Red Sox only one game this postseason is conservative.

In short, the #FireFarrell fans are diehard fans, fans who want the team to win, fans who demand a meritocracy at all positions, fans who love the team more than any individual player or coach, and fans who are showing tough love to a manager who has clearly been in over his head since day one.

So if we’re going to have a dialog about #FireFarrell, then let’s keep it principled. I welcome facts that prove that a conclusion other than #FireFarrell makes sense. Ad hominem attacks add nothing to the conversation.

Some of us are also Red Sox season ticket holders who may end up voting with their wallets. So maybe it’s time for new ownership, too.

Finally, for the record, I would rather be wrong and have the Red Sox win the World Series despite John Farrell (as happened in 2013) than be right and have the final season for David Ortiz end in disaster.

But I’m not wrong.


Erik claims to publish the #1 blog about technology, law, baseball, and rock ‘n’ roll at ErikJHeels.com. Brevity is not his strong suit.

All Of Erik’s #FireFarrell Tweets

All Of Erik’s Red Sox Articles

  1. MLB Manager-Of-The-Year Predictions #FireFarrell (2016-09-21)
    Jeff Banister, AL Manager Of The Year; Pete Mackanin, NL Manager Of The Year.
  2. Red Sox Fire Manager John Farrell (2016-09-12)
    Controversial manager leaves a mixed legacy.
  3. Boston’s Love Affair With Lovable Losers (2016-09-07)
  4. Drawing That Explains Whether To Go With Your Starter Or A Reliever For The 6th Inning (2016-08-30)
    Should I stay or should I go?
  5. 2015 Red Sox Season Brain Dump (2015-11-12)
    Before Dave Dombrowski starts doing his thing, I figured I should do my thing and give my $0.02 on the 2015 (and 2016) Red Sox season.
  6. A Modest Proposal For The Second Half Of The 2015 Red Sox Season: Start Wade Miley (2015-07-16)
    And trade Clay.
  7. Top 10 Reasons Shane Victorino is Worth 22 Seconds of Music (2014-03-26)
    Don’t worry, about a thing, ’cause every little thing, gonna be all right!
  8. Red Sox World Series Game 6: More Than A Game (2013-10-31)
    A top 10 moment at Fenway with my best friend.
  9. #RedSox 2010: The Season In Tweets (2010-10-04)
    26 snapshots of a season to make Red Sox Nation proud.
  10. Thomas R. Heels And Helena E. Heels (2010-05-09)
    An article for Mother’s Day.
  11. Carl Yastrzemski: Red Sox Legend, All-Star, Hero, Yaz (2009-07-14)
    Thoughts on Yaz by guest blogger Jim Houhoulis.
  12. How To Avoid Infringing Red Sox Trademarks (2009-01-13)
    Or anybody else’s, for that matter.
  13. Dear 2008 Red Sox: Thanks For A Great Season (2008-10-20)
    Win or lose, I’m with you every game, every inning.
  14. Epic Comeback: Red Sox Win ALCS Game 5 Over Rays 8-7 (2008-10-17)
    Down to their last 7 outs and trailing 7-0, the Boston Red Sox staged one of the most amazing comebacks in history. And I was there.
  15. Sox Are Down 9-1 In The 9th: As McCain Would Say, We’ve Got ’em Right Where We Want ’em! (2008-10-13)
     
  16. You Had Me At Play Ball (2008-10-10)
    MLB screws another generation out of watching the post-season.
  17. The New York Yankees: 26-Time* World Series Champs (2007-12-21)
    The steroid era tarnishes the modern Yankee dynasty.
  18. ESPN’s Greatest Highlight With Chris Berman (2007-12-21)
    2004 Red Sox highlights conspicuously absent.
  19. Sox Win World Series (2007-10-29)
    Red Sox defeat Rockies 4-3, Sox sweep series.
  20. A Red Sox Fan In Colorado (2007-10-25)
    Rocky Dogs vs. Fenway Franks.
  21. Red Sox: From Angst To Optimism To Victory (2007-10-21)
    I hope I never lose my youthful enthusiasm for baseball.
  22. Red Sox On Verge Of Historic Comeback (2007-10-17)
    The Red Sox are preparing to win three consecutive games against the Indians.
  23. Red Sox Rudderless (2007-10-16)
    The Red Sox look lost.
  24. Red Sox Perfect Game (2007-10-03)
    A perfect game with my son.
  25. Tito On Eric Gagne: It Is Our Job To Believe (2007-09-27)
    Red Sox pitcher Eric Gagne continues to struggle.
  26. What Will Dice-K Do With A 10-1 Lead (2007-09-03)
    Will he shine or pitch like the opposing pitchers?
  27. How To Not Jinx A No-Hitter (2007-09-02)
    Clay Buchholz’s no-hitter just what the doctor (and Red Sox Nation) ordered.
  28. Is Dice-K Out Of Gas? (2007-08-28)
    Japanese pitching star Daisuke Matsuzaka has become a 5-inning pitcher who could use a 7-day rotation.
  29. Nine Principles Of Baseball And Life (2007-05-02)
    Philosophy of Baseball: How to Play the Game of Life.
  30. Flu Times Two, And Patriots Day Too (2007-04-16)
    The Boston Marathon, Red Sox baseball, spring weather. What’s not to love?
  31. Dear Mr. Curt Schilling (2007-03-15)
    Questions from a lawyer/blogger/fan.
  32. My Injuries Are Good For The Red Sox (2007-03-02)
    Causation? Correlation? Coincidence? You decide.
  33. Pity The Yankees (2006-10-08)
    The Yankees deserve to win the World Series every year because, after all, they are the Yankees.
  34. Red Sox Hit Rock Bottom, Swept By Royals (2006-08-10)
    Is that headline possibly right?
  35. Walk-Off Hits And Other Game-Winning Hits By David Ortiz (2006-08-01)
    Twenty game-winning moments by Boston’s Big Papi.
  36. Red Sox Defeat Yankees On Google Trends (2006-05-15)
    Red Sox are number one in US and Canada.
  37. Red Sox Reacquire Mirabelli From Padres (2006-05-01)
    Now if we could just get Bronson Arroyo back from the Reds.
  38. Jonathan Papelbon’s New Nickname Is BumbleBee (2006-04-06)
    How the Finnish language inspired the Sox pitcher’s new nickname.
  39. Erik Tries To Buy Red Sox Tickets While Contemplating Which Family Member To Exclude (2006-01-27)
    How can a family of five buy Red Sox tickets when there is a four-ticket maximum?
  40. Red Sox Sign Arroyo To Three-Year Deal (2006-01-19)
    Sox will field 25 pitchers on opening day.
  41. Thanks Kevin (2006-01-13)
    The 25 continue to disperse.
  42. Damon Trades In Legend Status For A Few Extra Bucks (2005-12-21)
    Johnny Damon signs with the Yankees, four years at $52 million.
  43. Erik Heels In A Suit And Red Sox Hat (2005-11-16)
    The photo that I wanted the ABA to publish.
  44. Two Theories On Theo’s Departure (2005-11-11)
    Personal issues or fire sale.
  45. Cy Young Award And Rookie Of The Year Predictions (2005-11-02)
    I may be wrong, I may be crazy, but it just might be the LawLawLaw you’re looking for.
  46. A Tree Named Nomar (2005-10-26)
    And cats named Pudge and Pesky.
  47. 2005 World Series Will Be Astros vs. White Sox (2005-10-20)
    It’s Fox’s worst nightmare.
  48. Cardinals Win NLCS Game 5 And Lead Series 2 Games To 3 (2005-10-18)
    Mark my words. It will be a White Sox and the Cardinals in the World Series.
  49. Top 11 Rules For Picking The Right Team To Root For (2005-10-14)
    What if you’re not a baseball fan and you don’t know who to root for? Simply use the following handy rules.
  50. National League Baseball Is Boring And Other Observations (2005-10-14)
    Houston wins a 4-1 snoozer in NLCS game 2.
  51. ALCS Game 2 – White Sox Steal An Ugly 2-1 Win (2005-10-13)
    An error-filled game ends in controversy.
  52. ALCS Game 1 (2005-10-12)
    Angels 3, White Sox 2.
  53. The Curse Is Reversed (2005-10-11)
    The Yankees Begin To Comprehend What Is Happening To Them.
  54. Red Sox Looking Back And Looking Forward (2005-10-11)
    How a normal baseball fan thinks about this season and next season.
  55. ALDS Game 3 Preview (2005-10-07)
    Don’t blame anyone if the Red Sox don’t win today. If they don’t win, it’s because the better team won.
  56. Taking Computing Seriously (Or How The Red Sox Won The World Series) (2005-03-01)
    A strategy for preventing and curing computer problems.
  57. Red Sox Thoughts 2005-01-13 (2005-01-13)
    Red Sox History Repeats Itself.
  58. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-29 13:20:13 (2004-10-29)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  59. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-29 13:14:15 (2004-10-29)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  60. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-28 (2004-10-28)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  61. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-27 23:49:52 (2004-10-27)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  62. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-27 11:01:48 (2004-10-27)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  63. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-22 (2004-10-22)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  64. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-19 (2004-10-19)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  65. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-12 14:23:26 (2004-10-12)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  66. Red Sox Thoughts 2004-10-12 10:11:05 (2004-10-12)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  67. Bonds Homers, Ties Mays For Third On Career List (2004-04-12)
  68. Rocket Science vs. Barry Bonds (2004-04-12)
  69. Red Sox Thoughts 2003-11-10 (2003-11-10)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  70. Red Sox Thoughts 2003-10-17 (2003-10-17)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  71. Red Sox Thoughts 2003-08-08 (2003-08-08)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  72. Red Sox Thoughts 2002-09-05 (2002-09-05)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  73. Red Sox Thoughts 2002-07-22 (2002-07-22)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).
  74. Red Sox Thoughts: What It Means To Be A Red Sox Fan (1999-10-18)
    An email message promoted from my email archives to my blog on the last day the 2004 Red Sox were world champions (10/26/05).

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