What Will Dice-K Do With A 10-1 Lead?

Will he shine or pitch like the opposing pitchers?

The Red Sox currently have a 10-1 lead over the Blue Jays. Dice-K is about to start the 5th inning. In keeping with my theory about Dice-K, Daisuke Matsuzaka will throw a ton of pitches, make this a much closer game than it should be, and not make it to the 7th inning.

I’d love to be proven wrong.

5 Replies to “What Will Dice-K Do With A 10-1 Lead?”

  1. The answer to my question is that Dice-K gave up 7 runs in the 6th inning with a 10-1 lead. Proving that, at least recently, the best chance the Red Sox have to win when Dice-K pitches is to get him the heck out of the game after five innings. Note the drop-off in quality over Dice-K’s last six starts:

    1. August 4 – Red Sox 4, Mariners 3. Dice-K pitched 7 innings and give up 2 runs, 1 in the 7th inning. This is the last GS for Dice-K in which the Sox picked up a W.
    2. August 10 – Orioles 6, Red Sox 5. Dice-K pitched 7 inning and gave up 1 run. The Sox lose a heartbreaker.
    3. August 15 – Devil Rays 6, Red Sox 5. Dice-K pitched 6 innings and gives up 6 runs, including one key run (the winning run) in the 6th inning.
    4. August 22 – Devil Rays 2, Red Sox 1. Dice-K pitched 6 innings and gives up 2 runs, both in the 6th inning.
    5. August 28 – Yankees 5, Red Sox 3. Dice-K pitched 6.1 innings and gave up 5 runs, including 1 in the 5th inning and 2 in the 7th.
    6. Setember 3 – Blue Jays at Red Sox (in progress). Dice-K pitched 5.1 innings and gave up 7 runs, all in the 6th inning.
  2. I haven’t exhaustively analyzed all his starts – but a few points:

    1. last night, the umpire had a ridiculously tiny strike zone. I said to myself in the first innning that this was going to be a high scoring game.

    2. it is maddening how often dice-k will get ahead in the count and then lose the strike zone and/or nibble to waste pitches and go to 3-2.

    3. in the inning in question, he had ridiculously bad luck – same buzzard luck as with the Yankees start. here is the inning:
    – stairs walked – ok bad move – but stairs is ridiculously hot
    – rios hits a lazy fly misplayed by coco – should be 1 out
    – frank thomas gets an infield single as it tips off dice-k’s glove – should be 2 out.
    no hard hit balls at this point…
    – glaus homers. ok bad move – but glaus has killed dice-k so far this year…should be only a 2 run shot with 2 outs.
    – overbay singles
    – hill flies out….should be the third out, Sox still leading 10-3.

    this is really how it should have gone in that inning. Beckett had a similar bout of bad luck with some runs scored with almost zero hard-hit balls against the yanks.

    the only difference is, for some reason, Dice is giving up the long ball to hurt himself in these bad luck innings – whereas Beckett seems to have cured himself of this problem for the most part this year.

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